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good day and welcome to today's

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international space station update news

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conference with us today is michael

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sufferdini the international space

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station program manager he'll bring us

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up to date on the latest information we

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have on the

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status of the progress 44 spacecraft the

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launch day from baikonur cosmodrome and

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then we'll take your questions mike

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good morning uh at 8 00 a.m

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approximately 8 a.m this morning central

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time the progress 44p was launched

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successfully from the baikonur

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cosmodrome

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unfortunately about 325 seconds into uh

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into flight uh shortly after the third

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stage was ignited

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the vehicle itself commanded an engine

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shut down due to an engine

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anomaly

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and

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the spacecraft at the time the vehicle

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uh

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impacted in the altair region of the

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russian federation

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and that unfortunately is about what we

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know uh today because the telemetry is

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lost shortly thereafter and up to that

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point

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uh at least the preliminary data

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indicates the the vehicle was flying uh

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as according to the plan

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so

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obviously this has implications to the

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to the vehicle on orbit and the crew as

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well

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our russian colleagues will begin the

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process of

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forming a commission which i'm sure

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they've already done

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and we'll immediately begin to assess

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the data that's available to try to

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determine root cause

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the the spacecraft booster

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is called a soyuz ooh for the progress

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the booster for the

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soyuz vehicle that carries crews to

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orbit is called the soyuz fg

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the third stage on both of those

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vehicles is similar and so this has a

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potential implications to the the soyuz

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launch on the 22nd of september

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so as a program uh we've immediately

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begun the process of

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assessing the impacts and potential

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implications

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uh to the vehicle on board and the crew

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on board from a logistics standpoint

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this flight was carrying largely uh

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resupply items uh in terms of

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consumables there were very few

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one-of-a-kind items in fact none that

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i'm aware of are are one-of-a-kind oru's

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orbital replacement units if you will

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but there was quite a bit of logistics

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on board and most of which are falls in

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the heading of consumables and crew

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supplies

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but in addition that the 2.9 metric tons

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that was on the progress about almost

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1.3 metric tons was dry cargo

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the supplies i referred to earlier

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and the remainder was the water

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fuel and gas

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so given uh the logistics

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situation on board iss particularly with

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having flown ulf7

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and because we're at a higher altitude

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now and lower drag we're in a good

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position logistically to

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to withstand this loss of supplies we're

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going to come to iss

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and in fact i would tell you we can go

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several months without a resupply

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vehicle

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if that becomes necessary

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now the the other implication as i

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mentioned of course is the the crew on

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board and uh

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when the soyuz would be ready to launch

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so so while our russian colleagues sort

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that out uh as as the team uh

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uh starts uh getting together and in

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fact at one o'clock today the immt will

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convene uh to discuss the potential

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implications uh on the on the crew

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rotation cycle

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i can tell you this particular crew is

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their nominal return on the 8th of

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september resulted in 162-day

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a period on orbit

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we nominally plan uh for 180 days and in

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fact we have about a 30-day contingency

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on that

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so we have at least 40 to 50 days of

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contingency

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uh for the crew to stay on orbit that

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much longer to to

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allow us to stay at a six crew period

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while they sort out the anomaly

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of course

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if things

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extend too long

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which we don't have any indication today

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that's the case but given the anomaly we

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have to be prepared

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um

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there are

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there is an ability of course to operate

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station with less than six crew if that

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becomes necessary at some point

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uh the the vehicle on orbit

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that has ron and andre and sasha is

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intended to bring them home we'll time

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out

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and uh and and so we will have to bring

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them home

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and but operating at a three crew

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size is something that we're familiar

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with and able to do

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although it would have implications in

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our ability to do to perform research

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so that's where we are today uh we

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wanted to get this in front of you as

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quickly as you can as we could to let

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you know

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as you start to ask questions today if

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you ask me a bunch of technical

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questions about the progress i'll tell

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you i don't know and i'll ask you

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to refer those questions to our russian

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colleagues

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i'll also tell you they are they are

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very very busy trying to

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retrieve all the available data

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to try to begin the to begin their

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assessments

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to to sort this out

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they do have resources to fly

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another progress the 45 progress was due

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to launch

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in late october that vehicle could fly

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sooner if they've

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solved the anomaly and decide that they

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that that's the better part of valor

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but all that is forward worked for us

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but i i would tell you they're

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they're very very busy

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sorting through this anomaly meanwhile

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we're in a perfectly

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good configuration on orbit we'll

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operate nominally

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for some time even if the soyuz gets

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delayed somewhat we'll just operate

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normally on board iss

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and and wait for our russian colleagues

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to sort out this anomaly and get ready

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for the next launch

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and uh so with that i'll take your

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questions okay and please remember to

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state your name and affiliation we'll

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start here in houston with gina gina

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cinceri abc news for mike mike um

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have you seen this kind of problem on a

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progress before or is this the first

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time this this kind of issue has

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happened

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not in my

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history with the iss program i've seen

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this so we haven't had a progress

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anomaly associated with the iss since

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the beginning of the program

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and the second question

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what is your time

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give me the dates that you would have to

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make decisions

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in terms of crewing and soyuz launch can

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you sort of lay that timeline out for me

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well there they are they do turn out to

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be separate

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as i tried to say earlier

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our nominal

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crew rotation period is 180 days and we

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have 30 days of margin on that

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and that is supported by crew health and

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and

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so

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um we'll look very hard at that that

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number we'll look specifically at the

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crew on orbit uh that would might be

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extended beyond that uh period and i

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know our russian colleagues will look at

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the date on this particular soyuz to see

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if that can be extended

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and then we will decide to bring the

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crew home whenever it's whenever it's

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the right time to bring the crew home

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either either because of the soyuz or

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because the crew but we will bring them

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home when it's when it's right to do so

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uh so the next question becomes when is

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the next program when does the next

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soyuz fly

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and that's why i said it's kind of

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independent um if the next soyuz uh

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launches in the next 40 or so days then

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um or if i'll say differently if the

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delay is 40 or 50 days of the launch

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then what we'll do is we'll have our

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normal gap because we'll keep the crew

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on orbit longer at least today that's

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that's

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our assumption if all the data points to

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that we'll we'll keep the crew on orbit

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state six crew then we'll return the

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crew uh two weeks before launch the next

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vehicle and we'll have the normal

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two-week gap on board iss

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if the launch gets delayed beyond that

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period

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at some point we'll just bring the crew

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home because that's the right thing to

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do and we'll operate iss at three crew

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until the soyuz is

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ready to fly the next crew up

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and we're we're perfectly able to

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operate three crew we just won't get

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much research done during that period

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but they're sort of independent

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and how you've got plenty of consumables

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on board the space station so

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consumables aren't the limiting factor

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on six person

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could you sort of just shorten for me

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what is the limiting factor on six

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people on station well i'd have to look

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at the data we're so we we we can go so

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far i've forgotten what the specific

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limiting factor is food is

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very very long water is incredibly long

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with the processors we have

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interestingly enough it's probably

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probably the the uh

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the logistically speaking it's probably

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potty potty parts we have inserts and

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consumables get changed out regularly as

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the crew uses the potty

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however we also have a

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we have a very

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large supply of potty parts as well

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but i was i would guess that if i was

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counting on which consumables

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would would drive us it might be it

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okay

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but again let me stress that's

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way in the future we we won't be talking

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sorry mike um we'll move on to our phone

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bridge and we have been having some

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issue technical issues with that so i'll

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call them in the order that i receive

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them initially

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and uh we'll try to make sure everybody

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gets a chance to answer questions we'll

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start with bill harwood at cvs

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yeah hey mike uh you know i was just was

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reflecting on this launch this morning

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and and was thinking like everybody had

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after the last shuttle flight was that

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it really shows the loss of redundancy

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can have an impact can you just talk

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about that philosophically i mean i

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realize the russians will track this

284
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down but it does kind of highlight

285
00:10:25,670 --> 00:10:23,600
what can happen when you when you lose

286
00:10:29,430 --> 00:10:25,680
at least any leg of redundancy in the in

287
00:10:32,870 --> 00:10:31,430
yeah but you know philosophically we

288
00:10:34,790 --> 00:10:32,880
have discussed this from the very

289
00:10:39,430 --> 00:10:34,800
beginning um

290
00:10:42,790 --> 00:10:41,670
a uh the u.s i'll call them the u.s

291
00:10:45,030 --> 00:10:42,800
commercial

292
00:10:48,790 --> 00:10:45,040
cargo vehicles available as uh as soon

293
00:10:49,670 --> 00:10:48,800
as we could uh post uh shuttle

294
00:10:51,829 --> 00:10:49,680
uh

295
00:10:53,110 --> 00:10:51,839
post post the last shuttle flight

296
00:10:55,110 --> 00:10:53,120
it's one of the reasons why we added

297
00:10:58,949 --> 00:10:55,120
ulf7 to give us the margin to give us

298
00:11:00,949 --> 00:10:58,959
some some time till those vehicles flew

299
00:11:01,670 --> 00:11:00,959
so clearly if we had another vehicle in

300
00:11:04,230 --> 00:11:01,680
our

301
00:11:08,870 --> 00:11:04,240
uh

302
00:11:11,190 --> 00:11:08,880
would give us margin

303
00:11:14,389 --> 00:11:11,200
uh that we would look uh that we would

304
00:11:16,230 --> 00:11:14,399
obviously make make use of

305
00:11:19,509 --> 00:11:16,240
the shuttle vehicle of course could fly

306
00:11:22,230 --> 00:11:19,519
crews it could fly quite a bit of cargo

307
00:11:23,829 --> 00:11:22,240
um and so that that is uh that would be

308
00:11:25,910 --> 00:11:23,839
a capability we missed but i would be

309
00:11:27,430 --> 00:11:25,920
perfectly i'll be perfectly honest with

310
00:11:29,350 --> 00:11:27,440
you right now

311
00:11:31,110 --> 00:11:29,360
even if you had a shuttle i wouldn't be

312
00:11:32,790 --> 00:11:31,120
standing it up to try to hurry up and go

313
00:11:35,509 --> 00:11:32,800
fly

314
00:11:37,509 --> 00:11:35,519
logistically we're in really good shape

315
00:11:38,790 --> 00:11:37,519
we need the soyuz vehicle for rescue

316
00:11:40,550 --> 00:11:38,800
anyway

317
00:11:42,949 --> 00:11:40,560
so i think we would be focusing our

318
00:11:45,350 --> 00:11:42,959
attention now on on the anomaly on the

319
00:11:47,990 --> 00:11:45,360
soyuz and trying to get ourselves in a

320
00:11:49,269 --> 00:11:48,000
posture to get it flying again

321
00:11:51,350 --> 00:11:49,279
but it it

322
00:11:53,350 --> 00:11:51,360
clearly and we've we've always

323
00:11:54,870 --> 00:11:53,360
talked about this it would be it'd be

324
00:11:56,870 --> 00:11:54,880
nice to have

325
00:11:58,310 --> 00:11:56,880
the capability

326
00:12:00,069 --> 00:11:58,320
however at some point you've got to

327
00:12:02,389 --> 00:12:00,079
decide

328
00:12:04,150 --> 00:12:02,399
what's what's enough to get the job done

329
00:12:06,790 --> 00:12:04,160
so you can point your resources to the

330
00:12:09,750 --> 00:12:06,800
next thing the agency wanted to do so

331
00:12:11,430 --> 00:12:09,760
we've always known this was a risk and

332
00:12:12,790 --> 00:12:11,440
and i very much expect that we'll

333
00:12:14,790 --> 00:12:12,800
together with our russian colleagues

334
00:12:16,790 --> 00:12:14,800
sort out the anomaly and get comfortable

335
00:12:18,389 --> 00:12:16,800
with the next flight and continue to

336
00:12:23,990 --> 00:12:18,399
support iss

337
00:12:27,030 --> 00:12:25,509
russian colleagues that the thing is on

338
00:12:28,710 --> 00:12:27,040
the ground or is that just news reports

339
00:12:29,910 --> 00:12:28,720
i'm just making sure what we know for

340
00:12:32,949 --> 00:12:29,920
fact thanks

341
00:12:34,069 --> 00:12:32,959
uh i believe that well they've told us

342
00:12:35,430 --> 00:12:34,079
in more than

343
00:12:37,990 --> 00:12:35,440
one instance

344
00:12:41,269 --> 00:12:38,000
uh that it's that it did land in the

345
00:12:42,230 --> 00:12:41,279
altair region out high regions excuse me

346
00:12:44,310 --> 00:12:42,240
um

347
00:12:46,150 --> 00:12:44,320
i'm not aware that anybody has a visual

348
00:12:48,069 --> 00:12:46,160
on that they didn't tell us that

349
00:12:50,069 --> 00:12:48,079
uh so i'm not exactly sure why they know

350
00:12:52,230 --> 00:12:50,079
that but that was reported us in several

351
00:12:57,910 --> 00:12:52,240
from several sources

352
00:13:02,870 --> 00:12:59,750
okay bill not hear any more from you i'm

353
00:13:04,269 --> 00:13:02,880
going to move on to philip sloss

354
00:13:05,910 --> 00:13:04,279
this is phillip floss with

355
00:13:08,150 --> 00:13:05,920
nasaspacewide.com i have a couple

356
00:13:10,069 --> 00:13:08,160
questions uh first looking a little bit

357
00:13:12,629 --> 00:13:10,079
down the road

358
00:13:15,430 --> 00:13:12,639
what what is the long term schedule for

359
00:13:18,829 --> 00:13:15,440
the next automated transfer vehicle atv3

360
00:13:21,110 --> 00:13:18,839
and then the hp transfer vehicle next

361
00:13:23,670 --> 00:13:21,120
year uh

362
00:13:25,509 --> 00:13:23,680
let's see the atv launches at the very

363
00:13:27,190 --> 00:13:25,519
end of uh

364
00:13:29,030 --> 00:13:27,200
february

365
00:13:29,990 --> 00:13:29,040
of next year well hang on a second i

366
00:13:30,949 --> 00:13:30,000
have that right here in front of me i

367
00:13:32,829 --> 00:13:30,959
don't know why i'm trying to do it by

368
00:13:37,190 --> 00:13:32,839
memory

369
00:13:38,949 --> 00:13:37,200
um atv3 launches right now on

370
00:13:43,350 --> 00:13:38,959
march the 5th

371
00:13:46,829 --> 00:13:44,389
on the

372
00:13:49,590 --> 00:13:46,839
19th

373
00:13:51,189 --> 00:13:49,600
htv3 was going to launch in february and

374
00:13:54,790 --> 00:13:51,199
we're looking at moving that to the may

375
00:13:57,829 --> 00:13:54,800
time frame again logistically speaking

376
00:14:00,550 --> 00:13:57,839
um we're we're in really good shape

377
00:14:02,790 --> 00:14:00,560
um and so

378
00:14:03,670 --> 00:14:02,800
i don't think we have any issue waiting

379
00:14:05,910 --> 00:14:03,680
until

380
00:14:07,829 --> 00:14:05,920
uh the a if if we got into that

381
00:14:09,750 --> 00:14:07,839
situation i doubt very seriously we'd be

382
00:14:11,590 --> 00:14:09,760
in that situation but if we had to wait

383
00:14:14,710 --> 00:14:11,600
all the way till atv 3

384
00:14:15,990 --> 00:14:14,720
was ready to go fly i don't

385
00:14:19,430 --> 00:14:16,000
i don't have any concern that we

386
00:14:21,670 --> 00:14:19,440
couldn't support the crew to that period

387
00:14:23,990 --> 00:14:21,680
okay thanks and then uh

388
00:14:26,470 --> 00:14:24,000
more short term uh i believe this uh

389
00:14:27,430 --> 00:14:26,480
progress vehicle the 44p was going to be

390
00:14:29,590 --> 00:14:27,440
doing

391
00:14:30,389 --> 00:14:29,600
um a couple of reboots

392
00:14:32,870 --> 00:14:30,399
what

393
00:14:35,030 --> 00:14:32,880
has there been any assessment about

394
00:14:37,670 --> 00:14:35,040
either doing the reboost from a you know

395
00:14:38,949 --> 00:14:37,680
a phasing standpoint for the tma-22

396
00:14:40,790 --> 00:14:38,959
launch or

397
00:14:43,509 --> 00:14:40,800
also obviously for uh altitude

398
00:14:48,310 --> 00:14:45,350
of um the service module for instance

399
00:14:49,509 --> 00:14:48,320
for that or the other progress

400
00:14:50,949 --> 00:14:49,519
um

401
00:14:52,870 --> 00:14:50,959
you know i don't remember the specifics

402
00:14:53,990 --> 00:14:52,880
on where how we were going to do the the

403
00:14:55,670 --> 00:14:54,000
phasing

404
00:14:58,069 --> 00:14:55,680
but i can tell you that the

405
00:15:00,230 --> 00:14:58,079
the service module has the engines to do

406
00:15:02,790 --> 00:15:00,240
the work we try not to use it because

407
00:15:05,750 --> 00:15:02,800
it's it we just want to limit the the

408
00:15:07,269 --> 00:15:05,760
life the the using up the life on that

409
00:15:08,790 --> 00:15:07,279
those engines that obviously can't be

410
00:15:11,269 --> 00:15:08,800
replaced

411
00:15:13,829 --> 00:15:11,279
so we have uh dam capability which would

412
00:15:15,829 --> 00:15:13,839
be your near-term question can we do a

413
00:15:17,590 --> 00:15:15,839
debris avoidance maneuver

414
00:15:19,910 --> 00:15:17,600
we can do phasing burns we can even

415
00:15:22,470 --> 00:15:19,920
actually use the nader progress to do

416
00:15:25,110 --> 00:15:22,480
phasing burns if we need to

417
00:15:27,110 --> 00:15:25,120
and so from a from a phasing standpoint

418
00:15:28,710 --> 00:15:27,120
we're okay from a reboost standpoint

419
00:15:30,550 --> 00:15:28,720
we'll probably talk about whether we

420
00:15:32,470 --> 00:15:30,560
want to do the reboost

421
00:15:35,110 --> 00:15:32,480
without the progress or not of course we

422
00:15:37,030 --> 00:15:35,120
have quite a bit of prop on board

423
00:15:38,949 --> 00:15:37,040
iss

424
00:15:42,310 --> 00:15:38,959
right now so we our tanks are pretty

425
00:15:43,990 --> 00:15:42,320
full uh the the progress itself was

426
00:15:46,150 --> 00:15:44,000
bringing up a

427
00:15:48,470 --> 00:15:46,160
prop itself i forgot how much but it was

428
00:15:49,990 --> 00:15:48,480
on the order of a metric ton

429
00:15:51,749 --> 00:15:50,000
that we could have used for the reboost

430
00:15:53,350 --> 00:15:51,759
as well so we'll have a conversation

431
00:15:56,470 --> 00:15:53,360
about

432
00:15:58,150 --> 00:15:56,480
drag profiles and and uh when the

433
00:15:59,269 --> 00:15:58,160
possible launch would be of the next

434
00:16:00,790 --> 00:15:59,279
progress

435
00:16:02,150 --> 00:16:00,800
and uh

436
00:16:03,590 --> 00:16:02,160
and the prop that we have on board and

437
00:16:05,189 --> 00:16:03,600
we'll make a decision on whether it

438
00:16:07,189 --> 00:16:05,199
makes sense to

439
00:16:10,069 --> 00:16:07,199
to do the reboost that we plan to do

440
00:16:12,389 --> 00:16:10,079
with 44 progress um

441
00:16:13,670 --> 00:16:12,399
now or wait till 45 p that's that's work

442
00:16:15,990 --> 00:16:13,680
in front of us i can tell you we have

443
00:16:18,470 --> 00:16:16,000
the prop we could do the reboost

444
00:16:20,069 --> 00:16:18,480
if we chose to but we'll we'll

445
00:16:22,470 --> 00:16:20,079
talk about that amongst ourselves before

446
00:16:23,990 --> 00:16:22,480
we make a decision but but in any event

447
00:16:25,670 --> 00:16:24,000
the bottom line is

448
00:16:27,670 --> 00:16:25,680
the service module engines can do

449
00:16:29,350 --> 00:16:27,680
anything that the the progress engines

450
00:16:31,509 --> 00:16:29,360
could have done for us so

451
00:16:33,350 --> 00:16:31,519
the phasing burns uh any debris

452
00:16:34,790 --> 00:16:33,360
avoidance maneuver even reboost we can

453
00:16:37,509 --> 00:16:34,800
do if if we

454
00:16:39,509 --> 00:16:37,519
need to and choose to

455
00:16:42,550 --> 00:16:39,519
okay thank you very much

456
00:16:45,189 --> 00:16:42,560
okay we'll move now to marsha dunn

457
00:16:46,389 --> 00:16:45,199
yes hi can you hear me yeah

458
00:16:49,350 --> 00:16:46,399
yes um

459
00:16:51,990 --> 00:16:49,360
mike if if things are just stable on the

460
00:16:58,150 --> 00:16:52,000
station like they are now how long

461
00:17:02,870 --> 00:17:00,389
uh you know i don't

462
00:17:05,909 --> 00:17:02,880
there's there's things we can do to

463
00:17:06,789 --> 00:17:05,919
extend how long

464
00:17:09,029 --> 00:17:06,799
we

465
00:17:11,510 --> 00:17:09,039
operate on orbit

466
00:17:12,710 --> 00:17:11,520
we can we can reduce nominal food

467
00:17:14,870 --> 00:17:12,720
consumption

468
00:17:17,270 --> 00:17:14,880
there's a number of things we could do

469
00:17:19,510 --> 00:17:17,280
if we needed to to extend i i would tell

470
00:17:21,429 --> 00:17:19,520
you as i said earlier

471
00:17:22,949 --> 00:17:21,439
i don't i haven't done we haven't done

472
00:17:24,390 --> 00:17:22,959
that math yet

473
00:17:27,429 --> 00:17:24,400
because we have to consider both the

474
00:17:30,150 --> 00:17:27,439
russian and the u.s segment and htv and

475
00:17:33,350 --> 00:17:30,160
atv were were supplies we had planned

476
00:17:36,070 --> 00:17:33,360
for anyway but i don't have any concern

477
00:17:39,110 --> 00:17:36,080
about getting to the if nothing flew

478
00:17:40,710 --> 00:17:39,120
before the atv flight i i i believe as a

479
00:17:42,710 --> 00:17:40,720
program we could

480
00:17:44,789 --> 00:17:42,720
we could continue to operate

481
00:17:46,470 --> 00:17:44,799
on board now you have to understand

482
00:17:51,029 --> 00:17:46,480
at some point

483
00:17:52,710 --> 00:17:51,039
here in the late october time frame

484
00:17:54,390 --> 00:17:52,720
we'd have to decide to go down to three

485
00:17:56,470 --> 00:17:54,400
crew and of course now your consumable

486
00:17:59,029 --> 00:17:56,480
consumption goes down at that point

487
00:18:00,150 --> 00:17:59,039
so we wouldn't be doing as much research

488
00:18:02,150 --> 00:18:00,160
but you don't spend as much in

489
00:18:04,310 --> 00:18:02,160
consumables as well so

490
00:18:05,669 --> 00:18:04,320
if we go into an extended period without

491
00:18:07,350 --> 00:18:05,679
consumables

492
00:18:08,789 --> 00:18:07,360
that tells me i've gone an extended

493
00:18:10,310 --> 00:18:08,799
period without

494
00:18:12,549 --> 00:18:10,320
crew rotation

495
00:18:15,190 --> 00:18:12,559
and and that just means you can go

496
00:18:16,950 --> 00:18:15,200
longer with the three crew onboard iss

497
00:18:18,710 --> 00:18:16,960
so i can tell you today i can get all

498
00:18:21,190 --> 00:18:18,720
the way to the march launch of atv i

499
00:18:22,150 --> 00:18:21,200
feel pretty comfortable telling you that

500
00:18:23,350 --> 00:18:22,160
today

501
00:18:25,909 --> 00:18:23,360
but i haven't

502
00:18:27,510 --> 00:18:25,919
looked to see what we'd have to do

503
00:18:29,430 --> 00:18:27,520
to get beyond that

504
00:18:32,390 --> 00:18:29,440
thank you and another question i know

505
00:18:37,590 --> 00:18:34,549
just a what if question

506
00:18:40,150 --> 00:18:37,600
but um but nasa likes what if and and if

507
00:18:42,630 --> 00:18:40,160
how long could the station

508
00:18:44,630 --> 00:18:42,640
remain safely in orbit without any crew

509
00:18:46,390 --> 00:18:44,640
is there a finite period for that if

510
00:18:47,990 --> 00:18:46,400
ground controllers were in charge of

511
00:18:51,430 --> 00:18:48,000
everything

512
00:18:54,710 --> 00:18:51,440
uh assuming no failures we protect

513
00:18:57,510 --> 00:18:54,720
we always protect prop to keep us

514
00:18:59,270 --> 00:18:57,520
in orbit about a year

515
00:19:01,430 --> 00:18:59,280
now we have to we're not at that point

516
00:19:03,590 --> 00:19:01,440
in our altitude so our altitude today is

517
00:19:05,990 --> 00:19:03,600
higher than that but we manage our

518
00:19:07,830 --> 00:19:06,000
altitude and our prop to always have

519
00:19:11,029 --> 00:19:07,840
enough prop to keep us in orbit at least

520
00:19:14,070 --> 00:19:11,039
a year so today if we stop supplying iss

521
00:19:18,150 --> 00:19:16,470
and and we didn't have multiple system

522
00:19:22,070 --> 00:19:18,160
failures which is why we

523
00:19:22,789 --> 00:19:22,080
prefer to in these instances stay manned

524
00:19:25,350 --> 00:19:22,799
the

525
00:19:27,909 --> 00:19:25,360
if we did nothing else uh we we have at

526
00:19:29,350 --> 00:19:27,919
least a year uh and i'm sure in this

527
00:19:31,430 --> 00:19:29,360
case because of where we are on our prop

528
00:19:32,950 --> 00:19:31,440
tanks probably longer than that

529
00:19:34,230 --> 00:19:32,960
in orbit um

530
00:19:36,470 --> 00:19:34,240
so we've got

531
00:19:38,390 --> 00:19:36,480
quite a bit of time

532
00:19:40,390 --> 00:19:38,400
all right so so i'm just wanting to make

533
00:19:41,750 --> 00:19:40,400
sure i understand if there were no

534
00:19:42,789 --> 00:19:41,760
astronauts of

535
00:19:44,549 --> 00:19:42,799
of any

536
00:19:46,950 --> 00:19:44,559
sort on board you could go at least a

537
00:19:48,870 --> 00:19:46,960
year assuming no failures on important

538
00:19:50,390 --> 00:19:48,880
equipment right but

539
00:19:51,830 --> 00:19:50,400
the question i was answering for you

540
00:19:54,230 --> 00:19:51,840
that i thought you're asking if i had no

541
00:19:56,070 --> 00:19:54,240
resupply spacecraft either you had no

542
00:19:58,150 --> 00:19:56,080
astronauts on board if there if for

543
00:20:00,789 --> 00:19:58,160
whatever reason and i know this is all

544
00:20:03,510 --> 00:20:00,799
what if what if what if if if if you had

545
00:20:05,669 --> 00:20:03,520
to abandon the station how long could it

546
00:20:08,149 --> 00:20:05,679
safely stay in orbit assuming no

547
00:20:09,110 --> 00:20:08,159
equipment failures indefinitely

548
00:20:10,070 --> 00:20:09,120
okay

549
00:20:12,630 --> 00:20:10,080
all the

550
00:20:14,870 --> 00:20:12,640
the prop vehicles are automated vehicles

551
00:20:16,870 --> 00:20:14,880
we can we can dock and undock and

552
00:20:19,190 --> 00:20:16,880
resupply prop and

553
00:20:21,750 --> 00:20:19,200
reboost and keep the system stable and

554
00:20:24,230 --> 00:20:21,760
doing what it needs to do to be happy

555
00:20:26,070 --> 00:20:24,240
indefinitely as long as the system we

556
00:20:28,149 --> 00:20:26,080
don't end up with system failures that

557
00:20:30,390 --> 00:20:28,159
keep us from commanding the spacecraft

558
00:20:32,390 --> 00:20:30,400
okay so so the space station is safe in

559
00:20:34,390 --> 00:20:32,400
orbit even without any uh crew assuming

560
00:20:36,390 --> 00:20:34,400
no major male functions right

561
00:20:38,789 --> 00:20:36,400
okay thank you

562
00:20:40,390 --> 00:20:38,799
okay next on the list is mark rowe from

563
00:20:44,549 --> 00:20:40,400
aviation week

564
00:20:47,830 --> 00:20:44,559
have a couple of questions

565
00:20:51,110 --> 00:20:47,840
um can you be any more specific about

566
00:20:54,230 --> 00:20:51,120
the commonality between the third stage

567
00:20:56,470 --> 00:20:54,240
of the progress and the soyuz crew

568
00:21:00,549 --> 00:20:56,480
vehicles and to

569
00:21:02,789 --> 00:21:00,559
what level of participation would you

570
00:21:06,390 --> 00:21:02,799
want nasa to have in a failure

571
00:21:11,110 --> 00:21:08,789
uh i can't tell you mark specifically

572
00:21:13,669 --> 00:21:11,120
our russian call and we've known this uh

573
00:21:17,110 --> 00:21:13,679
for some time that there were very

574
00:21:22,070 --> 00:21:17,120
strong similarities between a fgbu and

575
00:21:23,830 --> 00:21:22,080
i'm a soyuzu and a soyuz fg i'm sorry

576
00:21:25,990 --> 00:21:23,840
and we were told today that when you get

577
00:21:27,590 --> 00:21:26,000
to the third stage they're particularly

578
00:21:29,669 --> 00:21:27,600
similar

579
00:21:31,430 --> 00:21:29,679
but i couldn't tell you what that means

580
00:21:32,789 --> 00:21:31,440
right now and i'm sure that'll be part

581
00:21:36,230 --> 00:21:32,799
of what comes out as part of our

582
00:21:40,070 --> 00:21:38,230
the last major anomaly that we worked

583
00:21:41,590 --> 00:21:40,080
with our russian colleagues was as you

584
00:21:44,149 --> 00:21:41,600
might recall it was had to do with the

585
00:21:46,470 --> 00:21:44,159
separation system for reentry and we

586
00:21:49,190 --> 00:21:46,480
were on the commission

587
00:21:51,669 --> 00:21:49,200
and participated closely on that

588
00:21:53,350 --> 00:21:51,679
so i'd expect something similar uh

589
00:21:54,710 --> 00:21:53,360
certainly in this anomaly because of the

590
00:21:56,549 --> 00:21:54,720
implications

591
00:21:58,870 --> 00:21:56,559
um to the uh

592
00:22:00,710 --> 00:21:58,880
to the soyuz booster

593
00:22:01,909 --> 00:22:00,720
but we have not discussed that we've

594
00:22:04,070 --> 00:22:01,919
we're trying very hard to give our

595
00:22:05,510 --> 00:22:04,080
russian colleagues time to collect the

596
00:22:08,710 --> 00:22:05,520
data

597
00:22:10,630 --> 00:22:08,720
that's a it's a challenging process

598
00:22:12,470 --> 00:22:10,640
right after anomaly because everybody

599
00:22:14,070 --> 00:22:12,480
wants answers and and really what you

600
00:22:15,430 --> 00:22:14,080
need is time to collect the data and

601
00:22:16,789 --> 00:22:15,440
sort it out

602
00:22:18,310 --> 00:22:16,799
and find out what the important

603
00:22:19,909 --> 00:22:18,320
parameters are and make sure you hadn't

604
00:22:22,149 --> 00:22:19,919
missed some parameters you might have

605
00:22:24,390 --> 00:22:22,159
thought wasn't that important

606
00:22:25,830 --> 00:22:24,400
of course if the vehicle did impact the

607
00:22:28,070 --> 00:22:25,840
ground is in any condition to be

608
00:22:30,230 --> 00:22:28,080
recovered i'm sure they'll want to go

609
00:22:31,830 --> 00:22:30,240
try to take a look at it as well so

610
00:22:33,350 --> 00:22:31,840
there's quite a bit of data to gather

611
00:22:34,950 --> 00:22:33,360
before you can even make certain kinds

612
00:22:36,950 --> 00:22:34,960
of assumptions and so we're trying to

613
00:22:38,310 --> 00:22:36,960
give our our russian colleagues a little

614
00:22:39,909 --> 00:22:38,320
time to

615
00:22:41,270 --> 00:22:39,919
to look at the preliminary data and

616
00:22:42,789 --> 00:22:41,280
gather their

617
00:22:44,470 --> 00:22:42,799
gather themselves together and decide

618
00:22:45,510 --> 00:22:44,480
that what their what their plan forward

619
00:22:47,029 --> 00:22:45,520
is going to be

620
00:22:48,470 --> 00:22:47,039
but we will have those discussions here

621
00:22:50,390 --> 00:22:48,480
in the semi near future about our

622
00:22:52,070 --> 00:22:50,400
participation with them in the in the

623
00:22:55,270 --> 00:22:52,080
investigation

624
00:22:58,149 --> 00:22:55,280
thanks and i had a follow-up question um

625
00:23:00,710 --> 00:22:58,159
could you sort of review for us the uh

626
00:23:02,470 --> 00:23:00,720
the current planning for the spacex

627
00:23:04,789 --> 00:23:02,480
mission and whether

628
00:23:08,149 --> 00:23:04,799
this particular event

629
00:23:11,350 --> 00:23:08,159
in any way sort of ups the ante

630
00:23:13,669 --> 00:23:11,360
i guess i've also forgotten whether

631
00:23:15,510 --> 00:23:13,679
there'll be supplies on board

632
00:23:17,350 --> 00:23:15,520
and whether

633
00:23:21,029 --> 00:23:17,360
that picks up any slack or this is

634
00:23:26,549 --> 00:23:23,669
leading up to operational flights of

635
00:23:29,029 --> 00:23:26,559
spacex and the orbital sciences vehicle

636
00:23:31,270 --> 00:23:29,039
uh next year

637
00:23:33,990 --> 00:23:31,280
well let's see currently the spacex demo

638
00:23:34,789 --> 00:23:34,000
was at the end of this year um

639
00:23:35,990 --> 00:23:34,799
we

640
00:23:38,789 --> 00:23:36,000
have

641
00:23:41,590 --> 00:23:38,799
agreements to carry up to 800 kilos but

642
00:23:43,350 --> 00:23:41,600
given the successful shuttle launch

643
00:23:45,029 --> 00:23:43,360
if they were to fly

644
00:23:47,190 --> 00:23:45,039
by the end of this year i'm not sure we

645
00:23:49,190 --> 00:23:47,200
would have too much

646
00:23:51,190 --> 00:23:49,200
to put on that flight

647
00:23:53,430 --> 00:23:51,200
and as you said it's a demo flight and

648
00:23:55,830 --> 00:23:53,440
so it's from a logistics standpoint it's

649
00:24:00,870 --> 00:23:58,310
not critical it's it shouldn't be

650
00:24:02,870 --> 00:24:00,880
critical to us

651
00:24:05,590 --> 00:24:02,880
the way we had done our logistics with

652
00:24:07,830 --> 00:24:05,600
the shuttle flight we had put ourselves

653
00:24:09,430 --> 00:24:07,840
in a position to get to the end of the

654
00:24:11,669 --> 00:24:09,440
calendar year

655
00:24:13,669 --> 00:24:11,679
2012 assuming we did have the atv and

656
00:24:15,990 --> 00:24:13,679
the htv

657
00:24:18,390 --> 00:24:16,000
and in fact the atv wasn't even full in

658
00:24:20,390 --> 00:24:18,400
that scenario

659
00:24:22,950 --> 00:24:20,400
so it's without

660
00:24:24,470 --> 00:24:22,960
more data without a more detailed

661
00:24:26,390 --> 00:24:24,480
assessment it's hard for me to tell you

662
00:24:28,950 --> 00:24:26,400
now if i didn't have the progress

663
00:24:30,630 --> 00:24:28,960
vehicle support in the russian segment

664
00:24:32,070 --> 00:24:30,640
whether or not you know how long we

665
00:24:34,390 --> 00:24:32,080
could go and what the impacts are that's

666
00:24:36,070 --> 00:24:34,400
really forward work for us so we haven't

667
00:24:37,830 --> 00:24:36,080
really had time to kind of sort the

668
00:24:40,070 --> 00:24:37,840
specifics out for you i can tell you

669
00:24:42,230 --> 00:24:40,080
from a u.s perspective

670
00:24:44,630 --> 00:24:42,240
we could we could go this whole

671
00:24:46,310 --> 00:24:44,640
2012 year without

672
00:24:48,549 --> 00:24:46,320
logistics from these vehicles that's not

673
00:24:50,549 --> 00:24:48,559
what you want to do i i want the demo

674
00:24:52,149 --> 00:24:50,559
flights to fly i'd like to see

675
00:24:54,789 --> 00:24:52,159
at least one

676
00:24:56,390 --> 00:24:54,799
of their commercial flights to iss fly

677
00:24:58,390 --> 00:24:56,400
just to make sure the system is going to

678
00:25:00,549 --> 00:24:58,400
be there for you in the 2013 time frame

679
00:25:02,870 --> 00:25:00,559
when we need it but logistically we

680
00:25:05,269 --> 00:25:02,880
didn't require it that was the one main

681
00:25:07,350 --> 00:25:05,279
reasons why we flew

682
00:25:08,630 --> 00:25:07,360
sts-135

683
00:25:10,630 --> 00:25:08,640
i haven't done the assessment to tell

684
00:25:12,390 --> 00:25:10,640
you if now we're supplying supplies to

685
00:25:15,350 --> 00:25:12,400
the russian segment as well as the u.s

686
00:25:17,909 --> 00:25:15,360
segment what the implications would be i

687
00:25:20,549 --> 00:25:17,919
ended i i answered earlier that i

688
00:25:22,310 --> 00:25:20,559
thought we could get

689
00:25:23,830 --> 00:25:22,320
to the

690
00:25:26,789 --> 00:25:23,840
atv launch

691
00:25:29,029 --> 00:25:26,799
without a logistics vehicle and

692
00:25:30,950 --> 00:25:29,039
and that's that's based on what i know

693
00:25:32,789 --> 00:25:30,960
the logistics train and and what our

694
00:25:34,630 --> 00:25:32,799
russian colleagues have on orbit but

695
00:25:36,149 --> 00:25:34,640
that's not even a precise

696
00:25:37,830 --> 00:25:36,159
assessment so it'd be hard for me to

697
00:25:42,630 --> 00:25:37,840
really answer your question within any

698
00:25:52,870 --> 00:25:44,870
okay thanks mark uh we go on to ken

699
00:25:59,510 --> 00:25:54,549
and we're not hearing you can if you'd

700
00:26:02,789 --> 00:26:01,029
all right move down the list to jim

701
00:26:05,909 --> 00:26:02,799
oberg

702
00:26:08,070 --> 00:26:05,919
yeah good morning how are you mike

703
00:26:09,750 --> 00:26:08,080
uh the question i have mike would you

704
00:26:12,549 --> 00:26:09,760
give us a little background on your your

705
00:26:14,630 --> 00:26:12,559
standard uh skip cycle planning and

706
00:26:17,029 --> 00:26:14,640
whether or not this kind of event

707
00:26:20,470 --> 00:26:17,039
fits into the contingencies you already

708
00:26:24,149 --> 00:26:22,789
yet you know jim we we used to talk

709
00:26:26,390 --> 00:26:24,159
about you probably remember we used to

710
00:26:29,269 --> 00:26:26,400
talk about a 45-day skip cycle and that

711
00:26:31,430 --> 00:26:29,279
was 45 days after the next logistics

712
00:26:36,230 --> 00:26:31,440
vehicle was expected to be

713
00:26:38,950 --> 00:26:36,240
at iss however with ulf-7 we kind of

714
00:26:41,350 --> 00:26:38,960
we kind of overachieved and so we're way

715
00:26:42,630 --> 00:26:41,360
way beyond worrying about skip cycle

716
00:26:44,950 --> 00:26:42,640
right now

717
00:26:47,350 --> 00:26:44,960
other than of course and this really

718
00:26:49,510 --> 00:26:47,360
doesn't apply to skip cycle when it when

719
00:26:51,190 --> 00:26:49,520
we need to bring the the crew that was

720
00:26:52,630 --> 00:26:51,200
intended to come home on september 8th

721
00:26:54,710 --> 00:26:52,640
when do we need to bring them home we do

722
00:26:56,470 --> 00:26:54,720
need to sort that out and as i said we

723
00:26:58,630 --> 00:26:56,480
can operate three crew but that skip

724
00:27:01,190 --> 00:26:58,640
cycle thing we used that and we will

725
00:27:03,430 --> 00:27:01,200
worry about again someday when we get

726
00:27:04,710 --> 00:27:03,440
when we consume some of the supplies we

727
00:27:07,269 --> 00:27:04,720
have on orbit

728
00:27:10,390 --> 00:27:07,279
down a bit um

729
00:27:12,149 --> 00:27:10,400
that skip cycle was 45 days but we we

730
00:27:13,669 --> 00:27:12,159
we well exceed that

731
00:27:16,070 --> 00:27:13,679
because of the pre-positioning we did

732
00:27:17,990 --> 00:27:16,080
with ulf7 okay well thank you i

733
00:27:21,909 --> 00:27:18,000
understand by the way that the lti crash

734
00:27:25,669 --> 00:27:23,430
sound

735
00:27:27,110 --> 00:27:25,679
detection people heard it for it broke

736
00:27:28,630 --> 00:27:27,120
out windows apparently for 100

737
00:27:30,549 --> 00:27:28,640
kilometers all around

738
00:27:34,310 --> 00:27:30,559
i hadn't heard that but

739
00:27:37,669 --> 00:27:36,470
okay uh that's all from you jim then

740
00:27:42,230 --> 00:27:37,679
we'll go to

741
00:27:47,269 --> 00:27:44,630
yeah hi mike uh pardon me for asking a

742
00:27:49,269 --> 00:27:47,279
dumb question here i could use this from

743
00:27:50,950 --> 00:27:49,279
the things you have already said but the

744
00:27:54,149 --> 00:27:50,960
three tons of cargo in the supplies and

745
00:27:56,389 --> 00:27:54,159
things that were going up is um

746
00:27:59,110 --> 00:27:56,399
is it necessary that at some point

747
00:28:00,789 --> 00:27:59,120
another supply mission flies and brings

748
00:28:03,110 --> 00:28:00,799
the same stuff up there that didn't make

749
00:28:05,669 --> 00:28:03,120
it this time or if you decide to go down

750
00:28:07,830 --> 00:28:05,679
the skeleton crew will that effectively

751
00:28:10,389 --> 00:28:07,840
compensate and eliminate the need to

752
00:28:12,870 --> 00:28:10,399
have some other cargo flight uh would be

753
00:28:16,710 --> 00:28:12,880
helpful for me to have

754
00:28:17,830 --> 00:28:16,720
clarity on that so thanks

755
00:28:19,590 --> 00:28:17,840
well

756
00:28:21,830 --> 00:28:19,600
clearly if we go down to three crew i

757
00:28:23,830 --> 00:28:21,840
would suspect that catching up later is

758
00:28:25,590 --> 00:28:23,840
going to be easier to do depending on

759
00:28:26,549 --> 00:28:25,600
how long we're without vehicles of

760
00:28:28,630 --> 00:28:26,559
course

761
00:28:30,389 --> 00:28:28,640
if we stay at six crew

762
00:28:32,389 --> 00:28:30,399
then there will have to be a makeup at

763
00:28:36,470 --> 00:28:32,399
some point and now i'm speculating

764
00:28:42,230 --> 00:28:39,350
not affected too much by this there was

765
00:28:45,269 --> 00:28:42,240
on this particular progress of

766
00:28:48,070 --> 00:28:45,279
one almost 1.3 metric tons we had about

767
00:28:50,710 --> 00:28:48,080
365

768
00:28:53,510 --> 00:28:50,720
kilograms for u.s supply

769
00:28:56,310 --> 00:28:53,520
um and so in the big scheme of things

770
00:28:59,750 --> 00:28:56,320
that's that's not a large number we will

771
00:29:01,909 --> 00:28:59,760
eventually need to make up that resupply

772
00:29:03,750 --> 00:29:01,919
but i would tell you we have time so

773
00:29:05,110 --> 00:29:03,760
we'll when we start flying progresses

774
00:29:07,110 --> 00:29:05,120
again

775
00:29:08,149 --> 00:29:07,120
and if we start flying progresses in the

776
00:29:09,510 --> 00:29:08,159
next

777
00:29:11,350 --> 00:29:09,520
couple of months

778
00:29:13,990 --> 00:29:11,360
then i would tell you that

779
00:29:16,230 --> 00:29:14,000
we'll we'll fly the most important

780
00:29:17,830 --> 00:29:16,240
supplies first and then over

781
00:29:19,750 --> 00:29:17,840
a course of probably half a dozen

782
00:29:21,350 --> 00:29:19,760
flights in a year and a half we'll we'll

783
00:29:23,269 --> 00:29:21,360
catch back up

784
00:29:25,590 --> 00:29:23,279
that's just speculation on my part but

785
00:29:28,630 --> 00:29:25,600
the the point is we have the margin and

786
00:29:31,430 --> 00:29:28,640
so if if we if we do delay eventually we

787
00:29:35,029 --> 00:29:31,440
would want to replace those supplies

788
00:29:37,430 --> 00:29:35,039
um if and it'll it'll depend on

789
00:29:39,510 --> 00:29:37,440
when the u.s commercial vehicles become

790
00:29:41,350 --> 00:29:39,520
available and when the progress is

791
00:29:43,590 --> 00:29:41,360
already start flying again and what rate

792
00:29:45,510 --> 00:29:43,600
the progresses will fly at

793
00:29:48,310 --> 00:29:45,520
and that will then all determine

794
00:29:50,470 --> 00:29:48,320
uh what we put on what vehicles and and

795
00:29:52,070 --> 00:29:50,480
how we keep the supply train

796
00:29:53,029 --> 00:29:52,080
going but again it

797
00:29:55,269 --> 00:29:53,039
and i

798
00:29:57,669 --> 00:29:55,279
at least today would expect

799
00:29:59,750 --> 00:29:57,679
uh that they'll they'll be able to fly

800
00:30:02,310 --> 00:29:59,760
the next progress here

801
00:30:04,710 --> 00:30:02,320
um certainly in a few months and

802
00:30:06,789 --> 00:30:04,720
and for a few months of waiting that's

803
00:30:08,870 --> 00:30:06,799
certainly within the bounds of normal

804
00:30:10,389 --> 00:30:08,880
manifesting to put the things that are

805
00:30:13,350 --> 00:30:10,399
going to become most critical to us

806
00:30:14,870 --> 00:30:13,360
first and then over time and get

807
00:30:16,230 --> 00:30:14,880
ourselves back to the point where we

808
00:30:18,070 --> 00:30:16,240
were or decide

809
00:30:19,669 --> 00:30:18,080
if the commercial guys start flying and

810
00:30:21,430 --> 00:30:19,679
we don't need to have that much supplies

811
00:30:23,110 --> 00:30:21,440
on orbit maybe we'll decide to defer

812
00:30:24,630 --> 00:30:23,120
that to later

813
00:30:26,149 --> 00:30:24,640
but that's just part of what we have to

814
00:30:27,830 --> 00:30:26,159
sort through

815
00:30:32,389 --> 00:30:27,840
thank you mike

816
00:30:36,389 --> 00:30:33,830
i think you might get to

817
00:30:38,310 --> 00:30:36,399
talk malik with the space.com

818
00:30:40,230 --> 00:30:38,320
and i just wanted to make sure i

819
00:30:43,909 --> 00:30:40,240
understand the decision making process

820
00:30:45,350 --> 00:30:43,919
um on on the crew side um going towards

821
00:30:46,549 --> 00:30:45,360
september's launch and then you

822
00:30:48,870 --> 00:30:46,559
mentioned earlier the kind of the

823
00:30:50,230 --> 00:30:48,880
october time frame for deciding uh if

824
00:30:52,549 --> 00:30:50,240
you have to go down a three career or

825
00:30:54,230 --> 00:30:52,559
not um can you kind of uh i guess walk

826
00:30:56,710 --> 00:30:54,240
through the steps you you anticipate

827
00:30:58,549 --> 00:30:56,720
you'd have to go through then um about

828
00:31:01,190 --> 00:30:58,559
when the september crew would have to

829
00:31:03,350 --> 00:31:01,200
stand down uh from that launch and and

830
00:31:05,029 --> 00:31:03,360
you would have decided to go to a three

831
00:31:08,950 --> 00:31:05,039
a three-man crew if that becomes

832
00:31:11,750 --> 00:31:10,070
give a picture of how that would work

833
00:31:12,549 --> 00:31:11,760
that would be great to understand well

834
00:31:13,669 --> 00:31:12,559
it's

835
00:31:15,029 --> 00:31:13,679
so we're going to kind of work in

836
00:31:16,710 --> 00:31:15,039
parallel right now our russian

837
00:31:19,990 --> 00:31:16,720
colleagues are going to work very hard

838
00:31:21,909 --> 00:31:20,000
to determine the cause of the anomaly

839
00:31:24,630 --> 00:31:21,919
the team the ops team is going to work

840
00:31:25,990 --> 00:31:24,640
very hard to look at all of our options

841
00:31:29,029 --> 00:31:26,000
including

842
00:31:31,269 --> 00:31:29,039
what's the longest the crew can stand to

843
00:31:33,350 --> 00:31:31,279
medically do we feel safe keeping the

844
00:31:36,389 --> 00:31:33,360
crew on orbit and

845
00:31:39,110 --> 00:31:36,399
what is the absolute maximum time this

846
00:31:40,070 --> 00:31:39,120
particular soyuz could stay on orbit

847
00:31:43,830 --> 00:31:40,080
so

848
00:31:46,549 --> 00:31:43,840
one or the other we'll work those

849
00:31:47,669 --> 00:31:46,559
together and then we will see where the

850
00:31:50,070 --> 00:31:47,679
anomaly

851
00:31:52,389 --> 00:31:50,080
resolution process takes us and there's

852
00:31:55,350 --> 00:31:52,399
a lot of places that could take you

853
00:31:56,870 --> 00:31:55,360
um it you know that's the possibility we

854
00:31:59,190 --> 00:31:56,880
we might decide that we've figured out

855
00:32:01,430 --> 00:31:59,200
the anomaly relatively quick but we want

856
00:32:02,789 --> 00:32:01,440
to fly a progress before we fly the

857
00:32:04,710 --> 00:32:02,799
soyuz there's

858
00:32:06,870 --> 00:32:04,720
there's all kinds of

859
00:32:09,190 --> 00:32:06,880
possible scenarios associated with that

860
00:32:11,190 --> 00:32:09,200
so it's it's kind of a parallel process

861
00:32:13,110 --> 00:32:11,200
we'll see how long we can possibly go

862
00:32:15,110 --> 00:32:13,120
i'd like to keep cx crew on orb as long

863
00:32:17,269 --> 00:32:15,120
as i can to continue doing

864
00:32:19,350 --> 00:32:17,279
the things that we do on iss all the

865
00:32:21,909 --> 00:32:19,360
research we have quite a bit of research

866
00:32:23,990 --> 00:32:21,919
on iss in fact there's very it turns out

867
00:32:25,750 --> 00:32:24,000
there's very little research i think 10

868
00:32:26,950 --> 00:32:25,760
kilograms on this particular progress so

869
00:32:29,830 --> 00:32:26,960
we didn't really

870
00:32:31,269 --> 00:32:29,840
impact research hardly at all

871
00:32:32,710 --> 00:32:31,279
with this law so we have quite a bit of

872
00:32:34,389 --> 00:32:32,720
research on board i'd like to keep the

873
00:32:36,389 --> 00:32:34,399
crew on board doing the research there's

874
00:32:38,070 --> 00:32:36,399
no reason why we can't do that so it'll

875
00:32:39,830 --> 00:32:38,080
be this parallel process of the

876
00:32:41,110 --> 00:32:39,840
commission sorting out what the anomaly

877
00:32:43,190 --> 00:32:41,120
is deciding

878
00:32:45,830 --> 00:32:43,200
uh what the what the

879
00:32:47,590 --> 00:32:45,840
the resolution is deciding

880
00:32:49,909 --> 00:32:47,600
what launches they want to do when and

881
00:32:51,590 --> 00:32:49,919
when the dates are and meanwhile we'll

882
00:32:53,269 --> 00:32:51,600
try to figure out what's the longest

883
00:32:56,149 --> 00:32:53,279
time we can keep this crew on orbit and

884
00:32:57,350 --> 00:32:56,159
at some point we'll make that decision

885
00:32:59,350 --> 00:32:57,360
if we still don't know what we're doing

886
00:33:01,029 --> 00:32:59,360
relative to recovering from the launch

887
00:33:03,269 --> 00:33:01,039
and and i suspect we'll at least have

888
00:33:05,269 --> 00:33:03,279
plans but if we we're not sure and don't

889
00:33:08,070 --> 00:33:05,279
know when the crew is going to fly then

890
00:33:09,990 --> 00:33:08,080
some point as we get into october we'll

891
00:33:11,830 --> 00:33:10,000
have to we'll have to start planning for

892
00:33:13,430 --> 00:33:11,840
a return of the crew

893
00:33:15,269 --> 00:33:13,440
and start that process sort of

894
00:33:17,029 --> 00:33:15,279
independent of

895
00:33:20,070 --> 00:33:17,039
of the anomaly resolution when the next

896
00:33:21,990 --> 00:33:20,080
flight's going to actually take place so

897
00:33:23,509 --> 00:33:22,000
i hope that helps we you know today the

898
00:33:24,870 --> 00:33:23,519
anomaly just occurred a few hours ago

899
00:33:26,549 --> 00:33:24,880
there's quite a bit of work to do to

900
00:33:28,070 --> 00:33:26,559
sort through you know where we're at and

901
00:33:30,230 --> 00:33:28,080
we need to get the team's time to work

902
00:33:32,070 --> 00:33:30,240
it we haven't really had the first

903
00:33:33,669 --> 00:33:32,080
mission management team meeting

904
00:33:35,269 --> 00:33:33,679
to discuss this but that it's going to

905
00:33:36,070 --> 00:33:35,279
be kind of a parallel path for a little

906
00:33:38,789 --> 00:33:36,080
while

907
00:33:40,470 --> 00:33:38,799
and you know things work out and and and

908
00:33:41,509 --> 00:33:40,480
it looks like the soyuz will be able to

909
00:33:42,389 --> 00:33:41,519
fly

910
00:33:44,230 --> 00:33:42,399
um

911
00:33:46,470 --> 00:33:44,240
early enough then we'll let the crew

912
00:33:48,389 --> 00:33:46,480
stay on orbit till till we do what i'll

913
00:33:49,990 --> 00:33:48,399
call a normal rotation just late but

914
00:33:52,070 --> 00:33:50,000
normal rotation with

915
00:33:53,590 --> 00:33:52,080
where one crew said a crew comes home

916
00:33:54,470 --> 00:33:53,600
about two weeks before the next cruise

917
00:33:55,990 --> 00:33:54,480
launched

918
00:33:57,909 --> 00:33:56,000
uh but if we can't support that that's

919
00:34:00,630 --> 00:33:57,919
fine too we'll just we'll just begin the

920
00:34:02,549 --> 00:34:00,640
process and plan for a re-entry day

921
00:34:04,470 --> 00:34:02,559
uh which is of course well coordinated

922
00:34:06,070 --> 00:34:04,480
with our russian colleagues there have

923
00:34:08,230 --> 00:34:06,080
two of the three crew on this particular

924
00:34:10,310 --> 00:34:08,240
soyuz and we always fly mixed crew

925
00:34:12,310 --> 00:34:10,320
anyway so it's a joint effort but they

926
00:34:13,990 --> 00:34:12,320
have to they have to decide they stand

927
00:34:16,069 --> 00:34:14,000
up to search and rescue teams and all

928
00:34:18,310 --> 00:34:16,079
the things they have to do for a normal

929
00:34:21,669 --> 00:34:18,320
soyuz return so we'll we'll make that

930
00:34:23,750 --> 00:34:21,679
decision somewhere down the road as the

931
00:34:25,589 --> 00:34:23,760
commission starts working on its

932
00:34:27,270 --> 00:34:25,599
findings and deciding

933
00:34:29,510 --> 00:34:27,280
you know when's the what's what's the

934
00:34:31,829 --> 00:34:29,520
repair how long does that take then you

935
00:34:33,669 --> 00:34:31,839
know what's the launch sequence

936
00:34:35,510 --> 00:34:33,679
and when finally ultimately does the

937
00:34:37,349 --> 00:34:35,520
next crew will the next crew be able to

938
00:34:38,790 --> 00:34:37,359
come to iss so it's going to be a

939
00:34:40,470 --> 00:34:38,800
parallel process here for a little while

940
00:34:43,190 --> 00:34:40,480
as we sort through the details of our

941
00:34:46,869 --> 00:34:44,310
thank you and

942
00:34:48,310 --> 00:34:46,879
just i think a really short follow-up

943
00:34:51,430 --> 00:34:48,320
looking ahead to what would have been a

944
00:34:52,710 --> 00:34:51,440
nominal uh schedule um for the crew i

945
00:34:55,909 --> 00:34:52,720
tried to clarify that you would have

946
00:34:58,550 --> 00:34:55,919
anticipated something like uh um i guess

947
00:35:01,349 --> 00:34:58,560
four uh more flights uh including both

948
00:35:03,430 --> 00:35:01,359
the uh soyuz and progress uh

949
00:35:04,630 --> 00:35:03,440
in that that regular schedule or was it

950
00:35:06,710 --> 00:35:04,640
three i guess just to clear that up

951
00:35:08,710 --> 00:35:06,720
that'd be helpful thank you i'm sorry i

952
00:35:09,829 --> 00:35:08,720
didn't understand the question

953
00:35:11,670 --> 00:35:09,839
say it again

954
00:35:13,430 --> 00:35:11,680
uh in terms of numbers of launches you

955
00:35:14,390 --> 00:35:13,440
were uh anticipating prior to the

956
00:35:16,069 --> 00:35:14,400
anomaly

957
00:35:18,310 --> 00:35:16,079
the incident today i'm just wondering if

958
00:35:21,030 --> 00:35:18,320
that was a two soyuz flights and two

959
00:35:22,630 --> 00:35:21,040
progress or was it just a three um a

960
00:35:24,310 --> 00:35:22,640
couple of crew and one more promise to

961
00:35:27,829 --> 00:35:24,320
this year thanks uh let's see what a

962
00:35:30,550 --> 00:35:27,839
progress in october and a uh again i got

963
00:35:32,630 --> 00:35:30,560
right here i just have to look uh there

964
00:35:35,349 --> 00:35:32,640
was actually a progress currently slated

965
00:35:38,230 --> 00:35:35,359
for the 27th of uh

966
00:35:40,710 --> 00:35:38,240
december as well so we we had two

967
00:35:43,190 --> 00:35:40,720
progresses and two soyuz between now and

968
00:35:45,349 --> 00:35:43,200
the end of the calendar year

969
00:35:48,470 --> 00:35:45,359
thank you okay

970
00:35:50,550 --> 00:35:48,480
next is irene klotz from reuters

971
00:35:51,990 --> 00:35:50,560
hi um thanks so much for doing this mike

972
00:35:54,310 --> 00:35:52,000
i was just wondering if there's any

973
00:35:56,710 --> 00:35:54,320
similarity at all between the upper

974
00:35:58,550 --> 00:35:56,720
stage of this progress and the

975
00:36:02,710 --> 00:35:58,560
launch accident that russia had last

976
00:36:06,950 --> 00:36:04,470
as far as i know they are completely

977
00:36:08,950 --> 00:36:06,960
different vehicles

978
00:36:10,630 --> 00:36:08,960
but

979
00:36:13,349 --> 00:36:10,640
i'd also be the first to tell you i'm

980
00:36:14,470 --> 00:36:13,359
not an expert in russian launch vehicles

981
00:36:16,390 --> 00:36:14,480
so we'll

982
00:36:17,910 --> 00:36:16,400
i would defer the specifics to that

983
00:36:21,030 --> 00:36:17,920
answer to our russian colleagues when

984
00:36:23,030 --> 00:36:21,040
you get a chance to talk talk with them

985
00:36:25,589 --> 00:36:23,040
um thanks and also would you mind just

986
00:36:26,950 --> 00:36:25,599
um i i mean it i would be surprised when

987
00:36:29,349 --> 00:36:26,960
i heard about this and i was just

988
00:36:31,829 --> 00:36:29,359
wondering what the reaction was when

989
00:36:33,030 --> 00:36:31,839
um how you found out about it uh just

990
00:36:34,310 --> 00:36:33,040
what the

991
00:36:35,910 --> 00:36:34,320
you know if it kind of jarred you a

992
00:36:41,349 --> 00:36:35,920
little bit or just what the response was

993
00:36:45,190 --> 00:36:44,150
well it's um

994
00:36:46,550 --> 00:36:45,200
you know

995
00:36:48,710 --> 00:36:46,560
you you always know there's a lot of

996
00:36:50,790 --> 00:36:48,720
things can happen with space station and

997
00:36:51,750 --> 00:36:50,800
on launch day you do uh

998
00:36:53,670 --> 00:36:51,760
uh

999
00:36:55,349 --> 00:36:53,680
you know we always are very sensitive to

1000
00:36:56,950 --> 00:36:55,359
launches and so we wait for them to

1001
00:36:58,870 --> 00:36:56,960
occur and then we

1002
00:37:00,230 --> 00:36:58,880
we wait for the email

1003
00:37:02,550 --> 00:37:00,240
telling us that

1004
00:37:05,349 --> 00:37:02,560
that we have the standard process where

1005
00:37:07,190 --> 00:37:05,359
we keep everybody informed and so i'm a

1006
00:37:08,950 --> 00:37:07,200
part of that process

1007
00:37:11,349 --> 00:37:08,960
sometimes i go into the control center

1008
00:37:14,069 --> 00:37:11,359
for the launches and sometimes i don't

1009
00:37:16,630 --> 00:37:14,079
this morning i did not go in

1010
00:37:18,470 --> 00:37:16,640
but i was in my office

1011
00:37:20,950 --> 00:37:18,480
so

1012
00:37:22,470 --> 00:37:20,960
i got the i got the email talking about

1013
00:37:24,870 --> 00:37:22,480
the launch but i didn't get the email

1014
00:37:26,230 --> 00:37:24,880
that said uh about eight minutes later

1015
00:37:28,069 --> 00:37:26,240
that said that the appendage has all

1016
00:37:30,470 --> 00:37:28,079
been deployed which is

1017
00:37:32,069 --> 00:37:30,480
usually like clockwork and so

1018
00:37:34,310 --> 00:37:32,079
after the launch email and i was waiting

1019
00:37:36,069 --> 00:37:34,320
for the launch

1020
00:37:37,510 --> 00:37:36,079
and i didn't in about eight minutes i

1021
00:37:38,790 --> 00:37:37,520
didn't see anything about 10 minutes i

1022
00:37:42,310 --> 00:37:38,800
didn't see anything

1023
00:37:43,750 --> 00:37:42,320
um and so about that time

1024
00:37:45,910 --> 00:37:43,760
phone started ringing and the email

1025
00:37:47,990 --> 00:37:45,920
started pouring in and so i that's where

1026
00:37:49,829 --> 00:37:48,000
i learned that we

1027
00:37:51,430 --> 00:37:49,839
had lost contact with the vehicle we

1028
00:37:53,430 --> 00:37:51,440
didn't know what that meant at that time

1029
00:37:54,550 --> 00:37:53,440
we thought there was a possible chance

1030
00:37:56,310 --> 00:37:54,560
that this

1031
00:37:57,750 --> 00:37:56,320
that we just lost calm and the

1032
00:37:59,349 --> 00:37:57,760
spacecraft being automated would have

1033
00:38:00,790 --> 00:37:59,359
just taken itself to orbit and deployed

1034
00:38:02,150 --> 00:38:00,800
its appendages

1035
00:38:04,150 --> 00:38:02,160
um and so we

1036
00:38:05,270 --> 00:38:04,160
we asked a lot of folks our russian

1037
00:38:07,910 --> 00:38:05,280
colleagues

1038
00:38:11,750 --> 00:38:07,920
uh we also um our stratcom guys uh

1039
00:38:16,470 --> 00:38:13,910
and uh and all of them

1040
00:38:20,470 --> 00:38:16,480
a little while later reported that

1041
00:38:22,150 --> 00:38:20,480
um somewhere within about i'd say 20

1042
00:38:23,430 --> 00:38:22,160
minutes

1043
00:38:25,510 --> 00:38:23,440
of uh

1044
00:38:27,510 --> 00:38:25,520
of launch time 20-25 minutes i finally

1045
00:38:29,349 --> 00:38:27,520
got a call that said they

1046
00:38:30,950 --> 00:38:29,359
they thought it was that it command

1047
00:38:33,270 --> 00:38:30,960
itself to shut down and it didn't have

1048
00:38:35,510 --> 00:38:33,280
energy to get to orbit and roughly about

1049
00:38:37,670 --> 00:38:35,520
that time our tracking guys told us they

1050
00:38:39,670 --> 00:38:37,680
had expected to see it and did not

1051
00:38:43,589 --> 00:38:39,680
and so we assumed that it

1052
00:38:46,630 --> 00:38:44,790
it's one of those things that kind of

1053
00:38:48,150 --> 00:38:46,640
sneaks up on you a little bit you know

1054
00:38:49,990 --> 00:38:48,160
you begin worrying the next thing and of

1055
00:38:51,109 --> 00:38:50,000
course i know

1056
00:38:53,109 --> 00:38:51,119
uh that the

1057
00:38:55,589 --> 00:38:53,119
progress in soyuz both use the same

1058
00:38:57,910 --> 00:38:55,599
booster and so immediately i started uh

1059
00:38:59,270 --> 00:38:57,920
worrying about when we're gonna

1060
00:39:00,310 --> 00:38:59,280
how quickly we're gonna be able to sort

1061
00:39:02,310 --> 00:39:00,320
this out and what we're going to do with

1062
00:39:03,109 --> 00:39:02,320
our crew on orbit

1063
00:39:04,870 --> 00:39:03,119
but

1064
00:39:06,310 --> 00:39:04,880
you know you don't in this business

1065
00:39:08,069 --> 00:39:06,320
you've

1066
00:39:10,150 --> 00:39:08,079
long since learned that

1067
00:39:11,910 --> 00:39:10,160
you just need to let the process take

1068
00:39:13,990 --> 00:39:11,920
hold and sort it out

1069
00:39:15,670 --> 00:39:14,000
things are never as bad or as good as

1070
00:39:18,390 --> 00:39:15,680
their first reported and so if you stick

1071
00:39:22,069 --> 00:39:18,400
with that philosophy you tend to stay

1072
00:39:26,470 --> 00:39:23,910
i'll say kind of level throughout it so

1073
00:39:28,150 --> 00:39:26,480
i i i didn't go through any

1074
00:39:30,069 --> 00:39:28,160
big swings one way or the other i was

1075
00:39:31,270 --> 00:39:30,079
disappointed that we lost the spacecraft

1076
00:39:33,349 --> 00:39:31,280
but

1077
00:39:35,910 --> 00:39:33,359
uh frankly i think we'll sort this one

1078
00:39:36,950 --> 00:39:35,920
out and we'll get to flying again and

1079
00:39:40,630 --> 00:39:36,960
and

1080
00:39:43,190 --> 00:39:40,640
we'll we'll learn from it move on

1081
00:39:45,910 --> 00:39:43,200
thanks mike

1082
00:39:52,710 --> 00:39:45,920
okay uh next is alex herch

1083
00:39:55,589 --> 00:39:54,150
all right now here in alex we'll move on

1084
00:39:57,349 --> 00:39:55,599
to mark matthews with the orlando

1085
00:39:59,910 --> 00:39:57,359
sentinel

1086
00:40:02,710 --> 00:39:59,920
thanks guys uh thank you mike uh just a

1087
00:40:05,109 --> 00:40:02,720
quick question uh given the constraints

1088
00:40:07,030 --> 00:40:05,119
on the health of the crew

1089
00:40:08,870 --> 00:40:07,040
what and forgetting for a moment

1090
00:40:10,390 --> 00:40:08,880
resupplies because it sounds like that

1091
00:40:11,829 --> 00:40:10,400
is not going to be a particular problem

1092
00:40:14,790 --> 00:40:11,839
but given the constraints and the health

1093
00:40:16,470 --> 00:40:14,800
of the crew at what point do you have to

1094
00:40:19,270 --> 00:40:16,480
abandon station

1095
00:40:21,109 --> 00:40:19,280
if there's there's no resupply of crew

1096
00:40:24,790 --> 00:40:21,119
you know that's varies with the crew we

1097
00:40:26,950 --> 00:40:24,800
worry about a number of things um

1098
00:40:29,270 --> 00:40:26,960
you know just in and of itself time on

1099
00:40:30,710 --> 00:40:29,280
orbit i would tell you we worried a lot

1100
00:40:32,710 --> 00:40:30,720
more before but with the exercise

1101
00:40:35,589 --> 00:40:32,720
equipment we have today

1102
00:40:38,550 --> 00:40:35,599
i think physically speaking

1103
00:40:41,190 --> 00:40:38,560
we have a little margin in 180 days

1104
00:40:43,030 --> 00:40:41,200
i'll start with we use 180 days plus 30

1105
00:40:44,069 --> 00:40:43,040
days margin so that's what we that's we

1106
00:40:46,230 --> 00:40:44,079
plan our

1107
00:40:49,030 --> 00:40:46,240
our crew on orbit time

1108
00:40:52,390 --> 00:40:49,040
um if if we have a crew that's been that

1109
00:40:54,630 --> 00:40:52,400
has a low radiation dose has no other

1110
00:40:56,069 --> 00:40:54,640
medical implications

1111
00:40:58,550 --> 00:40:56,079
we could probably extend that a little

1112
00:40:59,349 --> 00:40:58,560
bit and and be comfortable with that

1113
00:41:00,150 --> 00:40:59,359
um

1114
00:41:02,230 --> 00:41:00,160
so

1115
00:41:04,230 --> 00:41:02,240
i don't know the answer to that for any

1116
00:41:07,109 --> 00:41:04,240
of the crew that are on or today that's

1117
00:41:08,069 --> 00:41:07,119
that's data we don't share openly

1118
00:41:10,870 --> 00:41:08,079
um

1119
00:41:13,030 --> 00:41:10,880
and and we'll ask the right folks to go

1120
00:41:15,030 --> 00:41:13,040
sort that out with the first the three

1121
00:41:17,990 --> 00:41:15,040
crew that would be coming home

1122
00:41:20,390 --> 00:41:18,000
ron and andre and uh and sasha we'll

1123
00:41:22,390 --> 00:41:20,400
look to them first to see what we think

1124
00:41:24,230 --> 00:41:22,400
we could

1125
00:41:28,150 --> 00:41:24,240
how long they could stay on orbit

1126
00:41:30,150 --> 00:41:28,160
but i suspect that in most cases

1127
00:41:34,069 --> 00:41:30,160
the soyuz will drive when the crew

1128
00:41:36,790 --> 00:41:34,079
returns i think i think our crews

1129
00:41:39,109 --> 00:41:36,800
will always be able to

1130
00:41:40,870 --> 00:41:39,119
to extend

1131
00:41:42,470 --> 00:41:40,880
longer than this than then we'll be

1132
00:41:44,790 --> 00:41:42,480
comfortable leaving the soyuz vehicle in

1133
00:41:46,790 --> 00:41:44,800
orbit assuming no

1134
00:41:49,589 --> 00:41:46,800
mods of the soyuz that

1135
00:41:51,829 --> 00:41:49,599
gets it significantly extended life

1136
00:41:53,430 --> 00:41:51,839
today as i know it so that's what i

1137
00:41:54,710 --> 00:41:53,440
would expect i expect at some point

1138
00:41:56,150 --> 00:41:54,720
we'll say you know really we need to

1139
00:41:58,150 --> 00:41:56,160
bring the soyuz home that's the right

1140
00:42:01,349 --> 00:41:58,160
thing to do and i would expect that the

1141
00:42:03,990 --> 00:42:01,359
crew from a crew health standpoint

1142
00:42:05,589 --> 00:42:04,000
that we will the crew won't be the

1143
00:42:07,109 --> 00:42:05,599
driving factor but that is something we

1144
00:42:08,470 --> 00:42:07,119
have to look at that's what the team is

1145
00:42:10,550 --> 00:42:08,480
off looking at

1146
00:42:12,470 --> 00:42:10,560
uh what i told you was my supposition

1147
00:42:15,190 --> 00:42:12,480
and i if we find something different

1148
00:42:18,790 --> 00:42:15,200
we'll we'll react accordingly

1149
00:42:22,470 --> 00:42:18,800
and then i guess 210 days from

1150
00:42:24,550 --> 00:42:22,480
the arrival of the most fresh crew would

1151
00:42:27,430 --> 00:42:24,560
then put us somewhere in the i guess

1152
00:42:30,230 --> 00:42:27,440
january or february time frame of 2012

1153
00:42:31,270 --> 00:42:30,240
is that accurate

1154
00:42:32,550 --> 00:42:31,280
uh

1155
00:42:35,349 --> 00:42:32,560
yeah i'd have to do that off tonight

1156
00:42:38,069 --> 00:42:35,359
it's big february march time frame yeah

1157
00:42:49,750 --> 00:42:38,079
gotcha thank you

1158
00:42:53,349 --> 00:42:51,510
okay we're not getting a response there

1159
00:42:54,870 --> 00:42:53,359
so i know we've been having some

1160
00:42:56,950 --> 00:42:54,880
technical issues with the phone bridge

1161
00:42:59,030 --> 00:42:56,960
lines so i'll go back to the folks that

1162
00:43:05,349 --> 00:42:59,040
we tried and missed first

1163
00:43:14,790 --> 00:43:07,670
all right and then uh

1164
00:43:20,870 --> 00:43:17,670
all right uh we'll check any additional

1165
00:43:23,349 --> 00:43:20,880
questions here in houston

1166
00:43:25,430 --> 00:43:23,359
okay i want to thank you all for being

1167
00:43:26,950 --> 00:43:25,440
here and especially mr staffordini for

1168
00:43:29,109 --> 00:43:26,960
showing up on such short notice to give

1169
00:43:30,309 --> 00:43:29,119
us this update with that will conclude